The recently released Q4 2021 GDP indicates that the Nigerian economy grew by 3.98% in real terms (year on -year). The growth rate translates to a sustained growth for the fifth quarter since Nigeria plunged into recession in 2020. Compared to the growth rate of 4.03% printed in Q3 2021, we saw a contraction in the growth rate of Q4 2021 by 0.05%. As expected, with the festivities in the last quarter of 2021, Q4 GDP grew by 9.63% quarter on quarter reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter. In nominal terms, the Q4 2021 aggregate GDP stood at N49.28 trillion higher when compared to the N43.56 trillion reported in Q4 2020.
In Q4 2021, the nation’s oil sector growth rate improved by 2.68% to a negative 8.06% from a negative 10.73%printed in Q3 2021. However, on quarterly comparison, oil productivity growth rate stood at -24.06% in Q4 2021. The oil sector contribution to the GDP has been on a steady decline, from 5.87% reported in Q3 2021 to 5.19% in Q4 2021. The sustained decline is traceable to the deficiency in daily oil production capacity from a 1.57mbp day in Q3 2021 to 1.50mbp day in the last quarter of 2021. Despite the negative growth in the oil sector, the sector has contributed 7.24% to the aggregate real GDP in 2021.
The non-oil sector grew by 4.73% in Q4 2021 Year on Year, signifying a rise of 3.05% in comparison with the Q4 2020 growth rate. However, the growth rate shrunk by 0.71% when compared to Q3 2021. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.81% to the GDP in Q4 2021, rising by 0.67% as compared with Q3 2020, however, Quarter-on-Quarter basis, the contribution from non-oil improved by 2.3% to 94.81% in Q4 2021. The positive GDP growth rate was notably driven by the Telecom industry followed closely by the financial industry and Transportation industry.